Generally speaking I would agree with this. HOWEVER...They will absolutely go that low and even lower. Just like last time. Just like the time before that.
There are a couple of things that really are different this time, from the last few times. We have the supply chain issues that are preventing the ammo manufacturers from over-producing at this point. We have "The Great Resignation" that is increasing the cost of labor for all sectors of the economy. We have the Biden-induced inflation, and God only knows how high that is going to go or how long before the economy becomes stable again.
So, I can envision a scenario where it takes so very long for things to get back to normal that inflation has pushed ALL prices higher, and as a result the settling point for ammo ends up a little higher than where it started. Of course, at that point the inflation-adjusted price of the ammo will be pretty much back to where it was, but the absolute price could be higher.