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They will absolutely go that low and even lower. Just like last time. Just like the time before that.
Generally speaking I would agree with this. HOWEVER...

There are a couple of things that really are different this time, from the last few times. We have the supply chain issues that are preventing the ammo manufacturers from over-producing at this point. We have "The Great Resignation" that is increasing the cost of labor for all sectors of the economy. We have the Biden-induced inflation, and God only knows how high that is going to go or how long before the economy becomes stable again.

So, I can envision a scenario where it takes so very long for things to get back to normal that inflation has pushed ALL prices higher, and as a result the settling point for ammo ends up a little higher than where it started. Of course, at that point the inflation-adjusted price of the ammo will be pretty much back to where it was, but the absolute price could be higher.
 

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I really don't intend to offend, but you have predicted disaster so many times, and been wrong so many times, that I cannot take your concerns very seriously.

I know. I know. You're going to try to convince us all that this time is different. That this time you really are right. That this time your predictions really will come true. Um hmm. Sure. Whatever you say.

If this time it actually comes true, then I will offer you a public, and extraordinarily obsequious, apology. But only AFTER it has come true. Until then, not buyin' it.
 
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