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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I will be proven right.... again. Over on GlockTalk, many are convinced that ammo prices are immune to the laws of Economics (Supply & Demand) and that the recently inflated prices are here to stay. "THIS TIME is different," they insist.

I've encountered the same arguments here at times, but not as much.

ANYHOO.... 6.5 Creedmoor is down to $2.15 / round at Cabela's (limit 5 boxes). It's been at $2.50 / rd for a while, and it remains there at most other retailers.

At the peak, 6.5CM was running $5 / rd!

So... $2.15 is encouraging. But, I'm used to $1.20 - $1.30 / rd for the good match grade stuff. I'm going to continue sitting tight.

But, I'll be watching it. Of course, I would never rub it in again when I'm proven right. 馃槣 I'm not the kind to say, "I told ya so!" Naaaaaaaaa... not my style at all! 馃ぃ

Also... 9-mm: I'm seeing it down to 31 cents / rd for brass:
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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I don't think ammo prices will get below pre-pandemic prices, but they could get close.
For example, $0.16/round for 9mm FMJ.
We might see $0.19 to $0.22 range. Eventually.
They will absolutely go that low and even lower. Just like last time. Just like the time before that.
 
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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
It's funny... When prices were at 500% of pre-panicdemic, the worry-warts lamented and SWORE that those prices were the "new normal." (Ugh... I hate that cliche.) Prices were never going to go down from there.

Now the same folks are hedging their bets as the prices continue to come down.... and down... and down. From 500% to 400% to 300% to 200%... and now to about 50% over pre-panicdemic prices.

Now, they're saying, "They'll never get to pre-panicdemic levels." Prices keep trending down, and you guys keep saying, "but they won't get lower than this!" 馃ぃ Uh-huh.

WATCH. Again... the IMMUTABLE laws of Economics AND history are on the side of my position.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Generally speaking I would agree with this. HOWEVER...

There are a couple of things that really are different this time, from the last few times. We have the supply chain issues that are preventing the ammo manufacturers from over-producing at this point. We have "The Great Resignation" that is increasing the cost of labor for all sectors of the economy. We have the Biden-induced inflation, and God only knows how high that is going to go or how long before the economy becomes stable again.

So, I can envision a scenario where it takes so very long for things to get back to normal that inflation has pushed ALL prices higher, and as a result the settling point for ammo ends up a little higher than where it started. Of course, at that point the inflation-adjusted price of the ammo will be pretty much back to where it was, but the absolute price could be higher.
Yes... I'm aware of inflation and the "supply chain."

Doesn't matter. The Laws of Economics don't have exceptions. The bottom line is that when Demand PLUMMETS (and it will), inventory starts to STACK UP. Piles of inventory = ongoing OVERHEAD costs.

The costs of materials, labor... inflation... "supply chain" issues don't matter a whit, when sitting on inventory costs real money. So, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers have to start deciding whether to sell off inventory now for a small loss... or sell it later for an even bigger loss. Sitting on it just takes them down the hole even further.

Sitting inventory takes up very expensive real estate (and other ongoing overhead costs). And, those costs continue to pile up, the longer they sit on the inventory. Eventually, they've got to MOVE that inventory. And, that's when I pounce.

I can wait. I don't HAVE to go shooting. I'd LIKE to. But, on principle alone, I'll wait.

The trends are already PLAINLY visible. I'm seeing inventory LITERALLY piling up at the LGS and at online retailers. Not long ago, the shelves and floor were empty. Now there are stacks of cases of ammo. And, I'm watching prices go down, down, down. Albeit more slowly than I'd like! But the trend is undeniable.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Some of y'all should be playing the stock market, if you aren't already. Your powers of precognition are impressive.
I'm going on history repeating itself. And the law of supply and demand.
 
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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Supply is up, demand is down, yet prices remain comparatively high. Now what?
Trends. Trends. Supply is GOING up. Demand is GOING down, but it's still RELATIVELY high (compared to 2019).

Prices are ALSO going down, while still high compared to 2019. But, only months ago, prices were at 500% (five hundred!) above 2019 prices. Now they are 50 - 100% above 2019 prices.

Now what? Now we wait... still... a bit longer. Or at least, I will wait. Just like last time. And the time before. The outcome will be exactly the same as before. The only differences are the timelines... which can be fickle.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
There has never been a similar event in history. We鈥檝e had high demand due to perceived threats to ban things, high demand due to super charged events like mass shootings but we鈥檝e never had a global shutdown or component shortages. Before our own inner turmoil never affected the foreign production of copper or lead. The plandemic is a unique instance. I like you could be wrong but I don鈥檛 see ammo or reloading components coming back down to pre-pandemic prices. Maybe close but not there. The cost of components will remain high for years to come. You say when demand tailors off and supply stacks up prices will drop. But what I think you don鈥檛 realize is no different than the auto industry ammo makers have realized they can make a whole lot more off of less. The ammo makers will simply turn down the production to keep the supply constant with the demand so their product never stacks up. The days of me having 300 lincolns on my lot are gone. And the days of TargetSports having everything of everything for cheap are gone too.
The history of the Laws of Economics. They are immutable. Unless we have a gov't takeover (socialized) of the ammunition industry, the Law of Supply & Demand applies. It applies to ammo just as it applies to gas and potato chips and widgets.

Also wrong (IMO) about the manufacturers slowing down production to keep prices higher. Manufacturing lines / equipment lying fallow is a financial negative. They become a liability rather than an asset.

It costs them money to NOT run their machines. It costs them money to continue owning industrial real estate that isn't producing. They go NEGATIVE by shutting own lines.

Like I said last time and the time before and the time before.... just wait. The trends already support what I've been saying. The trends are absolutely (and irrefutably) headed in the EXACT direction that I said they would. Not because I said so. Because the Laws of Economics say so.

You're implying that the Laws of Economics no longer apply in the Free Market. I disagree. Time will tell who's right. But, I have the immutable Laws of Economics and MULTIPLE examples through history on my side.

The current environment has definitely thrown the economy a curve ball. But, eventually the environment reaches homeostasis. There's a big word for ya! Ha! Long time since I've used it. The wildly swinging pendulum eventually settles back to the normal rhythm.
 
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Discussion Starter · #24 ·
You have no similar event in history where the entire world stopped spinning.
The auto industry has already ratcheted things back to keep things at a trickle. I believe other manufacturers will do the same. The cost of core components like copper and lead aren鈥檛 coming down anytime soon.
You can keep quoting my posts and using words in capitals in an effort to show me how my opinion is wrong if you want. But in the end both are just that, opinions. Only time will tell who鈥檚 right.
Again... irrelevant. Supply & Demand still applies. The world stopping spinning affected Supply & Demand (DUH!), and prices and availability of nearly all commodities were affected ACCORDINGLY.

Likewise, as Supply & Demand correct themselves - though it may take a long time - prices will adjust accordingly. Every. Single. Time. Just like last time. And, the time before.

Your opinion is yours, just as mine is mine. I disagree with you, as do the Laws of Economics. You think the Laws of Economics no longer apply. I disagree.

Time will tell... just like last time when most people here and elsewhere told me I was wrong (about S & D) then... and ridiculed me over it. And, the time before that. And, the time before that.

It's OK. I'm used to being told I'm wrong "THIS TIME"... and proven right again in the long run. I'm a patient man. I'll wait. And, we'll see, eh?
 

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Discussion Starter · #25 ·
I just sent TargetSports an email telling them not to lower prices on 6.5 Creedmore so I can be right. 馃お
Well... shortly after I posted that link, Cabela's went out of stock on the 6.5 CM. o_O
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
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Discussion Starter · #31 ·
That is the one thing that we can be absolutely sure of.

Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
Fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way
 
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Discussion Starter · #35 ·
Racer I think you are right but only if we get a republican president and a trouble free year happen's., then ammo will come down to the old price + inflation.
That would certainly expedite the process. One can only hope! :cool:
 

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Discussion Starter · #49 ·
Did we ever get a datapoint on ammo prices since the whole Ukraine invasion?

Tonight, I got an email blast from SGAmmo.com and it claims (for Tul-Ammo)
Which, you know, I would never use steel case ammo in my handguns myself, but the claim is interesting?

"Limited supplies remain, no more shipments of this ammo are expected given recent sanctions. I know Russia is highly unpopular these days and with good cause, but Tulammo and Barnaul did supply 30% of the 9mm FMJ range ammo as well as 223 Rem. When existing stockpiles are sold out the consumer will feel the squeeze that puts on supply from other sources with availability shortages and higher prices"
Whatever. I'll keep waiting.
 

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Discussion Starter · #57 ·

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Discussion Starter · #59 ·
^^^^ Better than the $19.99 per box that I paid to use at Rick and Brownie鈥檚 training weekend last November ($40.00 cheaper per 1000).
Like I said.... better! :geek: But, not low enough for me to buy... YET. We'll see what happens.

Either it will continue to come down (in time), and I'll be proven right... and then I'll buy.

Or, the prices will stay put, and I'll get desperate enough and cave.
 
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Discussion Starter · #64 ·
Have not seen any other threads on ammo prices. In general they seem to have come down and stabilized somewhat, with more ammo available than has been in several years. As noted earlier I picked up some 38 special from SGAmmo at below what the usual prices have been. Today I took a gamble on some Federal HST boxes from a company I found on AmmoSeek. I had never heard of them but a few checks around the web says they are legitimate. I have not swapped out my carry ammo in almost two years, so what I have in my mags is due for a shootin and some fresh rounds loaded up. I could dig into my stores of the stuff, but why do that instead of buy some more??


Pre-pandemic pricing on 180grain. Also got several boxes of Remington 9mm and one box of S&B 380acp.
It plateaued for a while. But, I'm seeing it creep down again... a penny at a time.
 

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Discussion Starter · #71 ·
Supply has increased big time. You can tell by the numerous emails I get daily from several vendors. All it takes is folks not to get too antsy and buy right now. Lower the demand and the prices will continue to come down.
Let that **** stack up on shelves and in warehouses.
 

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Discussion Starter · #72 · (Edited)
I just checked my email. TONS of ammo (and ammo components) offers and in-stock notices. The prices are nothing special, though. Let'em eat it.
 

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Discussion Starter · #78 ·
I'm seeing ads for off-brand and re-man 9-mm ammo going for 20cpr or even less. I believe this will put pressure on the the big brands to go down, as well. People on some forums are buying the off-brands and re-man instead of the mainstream stuff. This is good, as it will lower demand and increase supply of the mainstream stuff. And that means lower prices.
 
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