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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I will be proven right.... again. Over on GlockTalk, many are convinced that ammo prices are immune to the laws of Economics (Supply & Demand) and that the recently inflated prices are here to stay. "THIS TIME is different," they insist.

I've encountered the same arguments here at times, but not as much.

ANYHOO.... 6.5 Creedmoor is down to $2.15 / round at Cabela's (limit 5 boxes). It's been at $2.50 / rd for a while, and it remains there at most other retailers.

At the peak, 6.5CM was running $5 / rd!

So... $2.15 is encouraging. But, I'm used to $1.20 - $1.30 / rd for the good match grade stuff. I'm going to continue sitting tight.

But, I'll be watching it. Of course, I would never rub it in again when I'm proven right. 😜 I'm not the kind to say, "I told ya so!" Naaaaaaaaa... not my style at all! 🤣

Also... 9-mm: I'm seeing it down to 31 cents / rd for brass:
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I don't think ammo prices will get below pre-pandemic prices, but they could get close.
For example, $0.16/round for 9mm FMJ.
We might see $0.19 to $0.22 range. Eventually.
Agreed. Attached is my ammo price sheets for the rounds I'm tracking. I have a full year's worth of data for 2021 and what is current for 2022. Some downward momentum but not to pre-pandemic prices at all. Again, all of these values are based on the high and low of ammoseek.com prices for the category of round.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I don't think ammo prices will get below pre-pandemic prices, but they could get close.
For example, $0.16/round for 9mm FMJ.
We might see $0.19 to $0.22 range. Eventually.
They will absolutely go that low and even lower. Just like last time. Just like the time before that.
 
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It's funny... When prices were at 500% of pre-panicdemic, the worry-warts lamented and SWORE that those prices were the "new normal." (Ugh... I hate that cliche.) Prices were never going to go down from there.

Now the same folks are hedging their bets as the prices continue to come down.... and down... and down. From 500% to 400% to 300% to 200%... and now to about 50% over pre-panicdemic prices.

Now, they're saying, "They'll never get to pre-panicdemic levels." Prices keep trending down, and you guys keep saying, "but they won't get lower than this!" 🤣 Uh-huh.

WATCH. Again... the IMMUTABLE laws of Economics AND history are on the side of my position.
 

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They will absolutely go that low and even lower. Just like last time. Just like the time before that.
Generally speaking I would agree with this. HOWEVER...

There are a couple of things that really are different this time, from the last few times. We have the supply chain issues that are preventing the ammo manufacturers from over-producing at this point. We have "The Great Resignation" that is increasing the cost of labor for all sectors of the economy. We have the Biden-induced inflation, and God only knows how high that is going to go or how long before the economy becomes stable again.

So, I can envision a scenario where it takes so very long for things to get back to normal that inflation has pushed ALL prices higher, and as a result the settling point for ammo ends up a little higher than where it started. Of course, at that point the inflation-adjusted price of the ammo will be pretty much back to where it was, but the absolute price could be higher.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Generally speaking I would agree with this. HOWEVER...

There are a couple of things that really are different this time, from the last few times. We have the supply chain issues that are preventing the ammo manufacturers from over-producing at this point. We have "The Great Resignation" that is increasing the cost of labor for all sectors of the economy. We have the Biden-induced inflation, and God only knows how high that is going to go or how long before the economy becomes stable again.

So, I can envision a scenario where it takes so very long for things to get back to normal that inflation has pushed ALL prices higher, and as a result the settling point for ammo ends up a little higher than where it started. Of course, at that point the inflation-adjusted price of the ammo will be pretty much back to where it was, but the absolute price could be higher.
Yes... I'm aware of inflation and the "supply chain."

Doesn't matter. The Laws of Economics don't have exceptions. The bottom line is that when Demand PLUMMETS (and it will), inventory starts to STACK UP. Piles of inventory = ongoing OVERHEAD costs.

The costs of materials, labor... inflation... "supply chain" issues don't matter a whit, when sitting on inventory costs real money. So, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers have to start deciding whether to sell off inventory now for a small loss... or sell it later for an even bigger loss. Sitting on it just takes them down the hole even further.

Sitting inventory takes up very expensive real estate (and other ongoing overhead costs). And, those costs continue to pile up, the longer they sit on the inventory. Eventually, they've got to MOVE that inventory. And, that's when I pounce.

I can wait. I don't HAVE to go shooting. I'd LIKE to. But, on principle alone, I'll wait.

The trends are already PLAINLY visible. I'm seeing inventory LITERALLY piling up at the LGS and at online retailers. Not long ago, the shelves and floor were empty. Now there are stacks of cases of ammo. And, I'm watching prices go down, down, down. Albeit more slowly than I'd like! But the trend is undeniable.
 

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Some of y'all should be playing the stock market, if you aren't already. Your powers of precognition are impressive.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Some of y'all should be playing the stock market, if you aren't already. Your powers of precognition are impressive.
I'm going on history repeating itself. And the law of supply and demand.
 
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I’ll bet you will see people trying to unload the hoard they bought before or during the pandemic. Trying to recover some of that money they spent. That’s when you should move in and pay them cents on the dollar.

I’m jonesing to shoot the 6.5 at distance again but, I’m also holding off till the price per round gets closer to $1.20 or below.


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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Supply is up, demand is down, yet prices remain comparatively high. Now what?
Trends. Trends. Supply is GOING up. Demand is GOING down, but it's still RELATIVELY high (compared to 2019).

Prices are ALSO going down, while still high compared to 2019. But, only months ago, prices were at 500% (five hundred!) above 2019 prices. Now they are 50 - 100% above 2019 prices.

Now what? Now we wait... still... a bit longer. Or at least, I will wait. Just like last time. And the time before. The outcome will be exactly the same as before. The only differences are the timelines... which can be fickle.
 

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I’ll bet you will see people trying to unload the hoard they bought before or during the pandemic. Trying to recover some of that money they spent. That’s when you should move in and pay them cents on the dollar.

I’m jonesing to shoot the 6.5 at distance again but, I’m also holding off till the price per round gets closer to $1.20 or below.


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Baaahaaw....
Hornady Match .338 Lapua Magnum, 285 gr ELD Match
Box of 20: $139.99 (That's $7 per round.)

Luckily I have a new shotgun to occupy my time.... :)

EDIT: I don't typically shoot Match-grade .338, and my inventory (some might say "stockpile" or even "hoard") was acquired at $3.75 to $4.00 per round.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
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I'm going on history repeating itself. And the law of supply and demand.
There has never been a similar event in history. We’ve had high demand due to perceived threats to ban things, high demand due to super charged events like mass shootings but we’ve never had a global shutdown or component shortages. Before our own inner turmoil never affected the foreign production of copper or lead. The plandemic is a unique instance. I like you could be wrong but I don’t see ammo or reloading components coming back down to pre-pandemic prices. Maybe close but not there. The cost of components will remain high for years to come. You say when demand tailors off and supply stacks up prices will drop. But what I think you don’t realize is no different than the auto industry ammo makers have realized they can make a whole lot more off of less. The ammo makers will simply turn down the production to keep the supply constant with the demand so their product never stacks up. The days of me having 300 lincolns on my lot are gone. And the days of TargetSports having everything of everything for cheap are gone too.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
There has never been a similar event in history. We’ve had high demand due to perceived threats to ban things, high demand due to super charged events like mass shootings but we’ve never had a global shutdown or component shortages. Before our own inner turmoil never affected the foreign production of copper or lead. The plandemic is a unique instance. I like you could be wrong but I don’t see ammo or reloading components coming back down to pre-pandemic prices. Maybe close but not there. The cost of components will remain high for years to come. You say when demand tailors off and supply stacks up prices will drop. But what I think you don’t realize is no different than the auto industry ammo makers have realized they can make a whole lot more off of less. The ammo makers will simply turn down the production to keep the supply constant with the demand so their product never stacks up. The days of me having 300 lincolns on my lot are gone. And the days of TargetSports having everything of everything for cheap are gone too.
The history of the Laws of Economics. They are immutable. Unless we have a gov't takeover (socialized) of the ammunition industry, the Law of Supply & Demand applies. It applies to ammo just as it applies to gas and potato chips and widgets.

Also wrong (IMO) about the manufacturers slowing down production to keep prices higher. Manufacturing lines / equipment lying fallow is a financial negative. They become a liability rather than an asset.

It costs them money to NOT run their machines. It costs them money to continue owning industrial real estate that isn't producing. They go NEGATIVE by shutting own lines.

Like I said last time and the time before and the time before.... just wait. The trends already support what I've been saying. The trends are absolutely (and irrefutably) headed in the EXACT direction that I said they would. Not because I said so. Because the Laws of Economics say so.

You're implying that the Laws of Economics no longer apply in the Free Market. I disagree. Time will tell who's right. But, I have the immutable Laws of Economics and MULTIPLE examples through history on my side.

The current environment has definitely thrown the economy a curve ball. But, eventually the environment reaches homeostasis. There's a big word for ya! Ha! Long time since I've used it. The wildly swinging pendulum eventually settles back to the normal rhythm.
 
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The history of the Laws of Economics. They are immutable. Unless we have a gov't takeover (socialized) of the ammunition industry, the Law of Supply & Demand applies. It applies to ammo just as it applies to gas and potato chips and widgets.

Also wrong (IMO) about the manufacturers slowing down production to keep prices higher. Manufacturing lines / equipment lying fallow is a financial negative. They become a liability rather than an asset.

It costs them money to NOT run their machines. It costs them money to continue owning industrial real estate that isn't producing. They go NEGATIVE by shutting own lines.

Like I said last time and the time before and the time before.... just wait. The trends already support what I've been saying. The trends are absolutely (and irrefutably) headed in the EXACT direction that I said they would. Not because I said so. Because the Laws of Economics say so.

You're implying that the Laws of Economics no longer apply in the Free Market. I disagree. Time will tell who's right. But, I have the immutable Laws of Economics and MULTIPLE examples through history on my side.

The current environment has definitely thrown the economy a curve ball. But, eventually the environment reaches homeostasis. There's a big word for ya! Ha! Long time since I've used it. The wildly swinging pendulum eventually settles back to the normal rhythm.
You have no similar event in history where the entire world stopped spinning.
The auto industry has already ratcheted things back to keep things at a trickle. I believe other manufacturers will do the same. The cost of core components like copper and lead aren’t coming down anytime soon.
You can keep quoting my posts and using words in capitals in an effort to show me how my opinion is wrong if you want. But in the end both are just that, opinions. Only time will tell who’s right.
 

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Was at Bass Pro the other day and lots of 9mm sitting on the shelf @ $21/box. Let it sit there a while longer and the prices will drop! Right now, the stuff that seems to really be holding a high price is shotgun shells! Wally had the Fed 20 ga that used to sell for ~ $20 listed for $29!
 
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