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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
I decided to start this thread to keep track of the progress of the Ban Assault Weapons Now (BAWN) drive to get an AW ban Florida constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2020.

Some high level numbers:

Number of signatures necessary to begin the "review" process for the initiative: 76,632
Number of Congressional districts that must meet "threshold" to begin the "review" process for the initiative: 7

Number of signatures necessary to get it on the ballot: 766,200
Number of Congressional districts that must meet "threshold" to get it on the ballot: 14

Due date for all signatures to be submitted: February 1, 2020

A quick explanation about the "threshold" requirement. To keep all of the voters in one area from running roughshod over everyone else, in order to "make review" and then later to get on the ballot the initiative must surpass a certain signature threshold for a certain number of Congressional districts. To qualify for review the district threshold is 10% of 8% in 25% of districts. To qualify for ballot placement the district threshold is 8% in 50% of districts. I'm not going to try to explain that here. Go read this guide if you're curious and want to know more about that.

Once an initiative has passed the number of signatures for review and those signatures meet the distribution threshold in 7 Congressional districts, then the review process begins. The Florida Supreme Court rules on whether or not the proposal meets the requirements of the constitution and state law, and the Financial Impact Estimating Conference prepares a financial impact review.

Assuming the proposal passes those hurdles then it has to gather the required number of signatures to get on the ballot and those signatures must meet "threshold" in a larger number of Congressional districts.

OK, that's the process in a nutshell. If you want to know more, check out this guide.

High level totals: link
District totals for "threshold" analysis: link

With that taken care of, here is where BAWN stands now. I will edit this post periodically and add updated numbers to show progress.

As of 2019-07-23:
Gathered 97,985 of 76,632 required for review (requirement met)
Distribution threshold met in 16 of 7 districts required for review (requirement met)

Gathered 97,985 of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 193

Synopsis: Cleared all requirements for review. Still quite a ways away from meeting the requirements for ballot placement.

As of 2019-08-01:
Gathered 99,592 (up 1,607) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 184

Synopsis: None of the districts are anywhere near meeting the signature requirements for "distribution threshold". To be put on the ballot 14 districts must meet surpass the distribution threshold signature requirement.

As of 2019-09-01:
Gathered 104,991 (up 5,399) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 661,209 still needed)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 153

Synopsis: In one month BAWN has only gathered 5,399 new signatures. None of the districts are anywhere near meeting the signature requirements for "distribution threshold". To be put on the ballot 14 districts must meet surpass the distribution threshold signature requirement. With 5 months remaining it seems they have a lot of ground to cover to qualify for the ballot. And that's assuming that the Supreme Court of Florida approves the language at all.

As of 2019-10-01:
Gathered 111,167 (up 6,176) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 655,033 still needed)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 123

Synopsis: In one month BAWN has only gathered 6,176 new signatures, scarcely better than last month's total of 5,399. As was true last month, none of the districts are anywhere near meeting the signature requirements for "distribution threshold". With only 4 months remaining it would take a sudden, massive burst of progress for them to have any chance at all of making the ballot. Additionally the Florida Supreme Court still has not ruled on whether the amendment language is impermissibly misleading. I'm going to go ahead and call this and say there's no way in hell they are going to make the ballot, but I guess anything is possible.

As of 2019-11-01:
Gathered 115,052 (up 3,885) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 651,148 still needed)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 92

Synopsis: It seems almost pointless that BAWN has submitted any signatures in the last month since they have only submitted 3,885. If they are going to make a serious effort to get this on the ballot next year they need to be turning in around 200,000+ a month now, not a few thousand. This month's total is less than the prior, and I would not be surprised if next month's total is zero. At this point they are wasting their time and money to continue to attempt to gather signatures (in my opinion). Maybe they are hoping for another mass shooting in Florida to put some wind in their sails. I don't know.

I'm going to stick with my call from last month when I said there's no way in hell they are going to make the ballot, barring some tragedy they can capitalize upon between now and 2/1.

As of 2019-12-04: (updated a few days late as I've been sick)
Gathered 123,831 (up 8,779) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 642,369 still needed)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 59

Synopsis: This seems dead. I don't know why they even bother continuing to turn in signatures.

As of 2020-01-01:
Gathered 130,232 (up 6,401) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 635,968 still needed)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 31

Synopsis: To me it seems statistically impossible for them to reach the threshold in time. I'll be happy in 31 days when we can put a nail in the coffin of this terribly misguided effort.

As of 2020-02-01:
Gathered 147,042 (up 16,810 - the best month they've had since I started tracking) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 619,158 still needed)
Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 0

This is dead. Finally. They might try again in 2 years but it is a lot harder to get citizen initiatives on the ballot now. If they couldn't get this on the ballot now I wouldn't think they'd have any more luck in 2 years when Parkland is an even more distant memory - unless they get lucky and there is another tragedy for them to attempt to capitalize upon.
 

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Great thread Brian! :thumsup

:couchpopcorn
 

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Definitely one to keep an eye on.


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Excellent thread Brian. Wonder if the new petition initiative requiring florida residents etc, slowed it down.
 

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What does the proposed law stipulate?

And... how many here would comply?
 

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This has been on my mind and I wanted to look into how close they are for a while now. Thank you very much for starting this thread, I will definitely keep an eye on it.
 

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We need to fight back and stop accepting.
Push for full auto ownership, let the gun grabbers settle for where we are now.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Thank you, Brian. '16 of 7 districts' ??? Typo?
Not a typo, though perhaps not the best way of providing the numbers. What it is intended to convey is that they have to meet threshold in 7 districts to qualify for review, and they have met threshold in 16 districts - so way more than enough to qualify for review.

And in case anybody is wondering why/how they have met threshold for review in 16 of 7 districts, but for ballot placement they have met threshold in 0 of 14, that's because the threshold is higher in each district for ballot placement and so far they have not achieved the "ballot placement" number of required signatures in any district yet.

That last point (not having met the ballot placement threshold in any district yet) seems encouraging. Looking at the district-by-district breakdown their biggest numbers are in Southeast Florida. The thresholds required to get on the ballot are all in 21,000 to 34,000 range and their best district total so far is 7,776 of 32,305 in Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota (District 16). That's less than 1/4th of the way there in their best district. And they are only about 12.7% of the way there in the overall number of signatures.

With the additional obstacles put in their way by the change in the ballot initiative law it seems like they have a tough hill to climb. I used to worry that maybe they were holding back signature sheets in order to keep the count deceptively low, but the new law requires that they submit all sheets within 30 days of being signed by the voter.

All petitions must be submitted by February 1st, 2020. I'm going to edit the OP to reflect that deadline and put the number of days remaining until the deadline.
 

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Thanks for the clarification, Brian.

I also believe the title of the amendment is deliberately misleading since it is really a bill mandating registration of pretty much all semi-automatic long guns.
 

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Great thread idea Brian. Thanks.
 

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I wonder how many of those signatures they have there are totally made up? And just who verifies or oversees that they are all legit?

:popcorn
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I wonder how many of those signatures they have there are totally made up? And just who verifies or oversees that they are all legit?

:popcorn
The Supervisor of Elections in each county (the county for the voter who signed) verifies the signatures against the voter records to make sure they are legit and the campaign for the initiative has to pay for that validation work at a cost of 10 cents per signature or the actual cost, whichever is less.
 

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The Supervisor of Elections in each county (the county for the voter who signed) verifies the signatures against the voter records to make sure they are legit and the campaign for the initiative has to pay for that validation work at a cost of 10 cents per signature or the actual cost, whichever is less.
Well, so much for Broward County, then..... Is that lady still in charge, there???

:thumbsdwn:banghead2:crackit
 

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Well, so much for Broward County, then..... Is that lady still in charge, there???

:thumbsdwn:banghead2:crackit
No. She was replaced last December.
 

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From what I can tell, the proposed law would ban all new sales of evil black rifles, while the guns already in possession would have to be registered.

Basically what they did in NY and CT. But, the registration compliance rate in those states has been 6% and 12% respectively! :grin
 
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