2020 Ballot initiative to ban "Assault Weapons" - progress tracking
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Thread: 2020 Ballot initiative to ban "Assault Weapons" - progress tracking

  1. #1
    Distinguished Member BrianB's Avatar
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    2020 Ballot initiative to ban "Assault Weapons" - progress tracking

    I decided to start this thread to keep track of the progress of the Ban Assault Weapons Now (BAWN) drive to get an AW ban Florida constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2020.

    Some high level numbers:

    Number of signatures necessary to begin the "review" process for the initiative: 76,632
    Number of Congressional districts that must meet "threshold" to begin the "review" process for the initiative: 7

    Number of signatures necessary to get it on the ballot: 766,200
    Number of Congressional districts that must meet "threshold" to get it on the ballot: 14

    Due date for all signatures to be submitted: February 1, 2020

    A quick explanation about the "threshold" requirement. To keep all of the voters in one area from running roughshod over everyone else, in order to "make review" and then later to get on the ballot the initiative must surpass a certain signature threshold for a certain number of Congressional districts. To qualify for review the district threshold is 10% of 8% in 25% of districts. To qualify for ballot placement the district threshold is 8% in 50% of districts. I'm not going to try to explain that here. Go read this guide if you're curious and want to know more about that.

    Once an initiative has passed the number of signatures for review and those signatures meet the distribution threshold in 7 Congressional districts, then the review process begins. The Florida Supreme Court rules on whether or not the proposal meets the requirements of the constitution and state law, and the Financial Impact Estimating Conference prepares a financial impact review.

    Assuming the proposal passes those hurdles then it has to gather the required number of signatures to get on the ballot and those signatures must meet "threshold" in a larger number of Congressional districts.

    OK, that's the process in a nutshell. If you want to know more, check out this guide.

    High level totals: link
    District totals for "threshold" analysis: link

    With that taken care of, here is where BAWN stands now. I will edit this post periodically and add updated numbers to show progress.

    As of 2019-07-23:
    Gathered 97,985 of 76,632 required for review (requirement met)
    Distribution threshold met in 16 of 7 districts required for review (requirement met)

    Gathered 97,985 of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 193

    Synopsis: Cleared all requirements for review. Still quite a ways away from meeting the requirements for ballot placement.

    As of 2019-08-01:
    Gathered 99,592 (up 1,607) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 184

    Synopsis: None of the districts are anywhere near meeting the signature requirements for "distribution threshold". To be put on the ballot 14 districts must meet surpass the distribution threshold signature requirement.

    As of 2019-09-01:
    Gathered 104,991 (up 5,399) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 661,209 still needed)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 153

    Synopsis: In one month BAWN has only gathered 5,399 new signatures. None of the districts are anywhere near meeting the signature requirements for "distribution threshold". To be put on the ballot 14 districts must meet surpass the distribution threshold signature requirement. With 5 months remaining it seems they have a lot of ground to cover to qualify for the ballot. And that's assuming that the Supreme Court of Florida approves the language at all.

    As of 2019-10-01:
    Gathered 111,167 (up 6,176) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 655,033 still needed)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 123

    Synopsis: In one month BAWN has only gathered 6,176 new signatures, scarcely better than last month's total of 5,399. As was true last month, none of the districts are anywhere near meeting the signature requirements for "distribution threshold". With only 4 months remaining it would take a sudden, massive burst of progress for them to have any chance at all of making the ballot. Additionally the Florida Supreme Court still has not ruled on whether the amendment language is impermissibly misleading. I'm going to go ahead and call this and say there's no way in hell they are going to make the ballot, but I guess anything is possible.

    As of 2019-11-01:
    Gathered 115,052 (up 3,885) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 651,148 still needed)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 92

    Synopsis: It seems almost pointless that BAWN has submitted any signatures in the last month since they have only submitted 3,885. If they are going to make a serious effort to get this on the ballot next year they need to be turning in around 200,000+ a month now, not a few thousand. This month's total is less than the prior, and I would not be surprised if next month's total is zero. At this point they are wasting their time and money to continue to attempt to gather signatures (in my opinion). Maybe they are hoping for another mass shooting in Florida to put some wind in their sails. I don't know.

    I'm going to stick with my call from last month when I said there's no way in hell they are going to make the ballot, barring some tragedy they can capitalize upon between now and 2/1.

    As of 2019-12-04: (updated a few days late as I've been sick)
    Gathered 123,831 (up 8,779) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 642,369 still needed)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 59

    Synopsis: This seems dead. I don't know why they even bother continuing to turn in signatures.

    As of 2020-01-01:
    Gathered 130,232 (up 6,401) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 635,968 still needed)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 31

    Synopsis: To me it seems statistically impossible for them to reach the threshold in time. I'll be happy in 31 days when we can put a nail in the coffin of this terribly misguided effort.

    As of 2020-02-01:
    Gathered 147,042 (up 16,810 - the best month they've had since I started tracking) of 766,200 required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 619,158 still needed)
    Distribution threshold met in 0 of 14 districts required for ballot placement (requirement not met, 14 still needed)

    Days remaining to signature deadline (2/1/2020): 0

    This is dead. Finally. They might try again in 2 years but it is a lot harder to get citizen initiatives on the ballot now. If they couldn't get this on the ballot now I wouldn't think they'd have any more luck in 2 years when Parkland is an even more distant memory - unless they get lucky and there is another tragedy for them to attempt to capitalize upon.
    Last edited by BrianB; 02-01-2020 at 01:25 AM. Reason: Updated through 2/1/2020 - no further updates
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  2. #2
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    Great thread Brian!

    -BH

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  3. #3
    Distinguished Member Caleb's Avatar
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    Definitely one to keep an eye on.


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  5. #4
    Distinguished Member AFJuvat's Avatar
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    Excellent thread Brian. Wonder if the new petition initiative requiring florida residents etc, slowed it down.
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    “There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men.”

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  6. #5
    Senior Member MisterEd's Avatar
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    Thank you, Brian. '16 of 7 districts' ??? Typo?
    Last edited by MisterEd; 07-24-2019 at 08:32 AM. Reason: adding
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    Distinguished Member 10x's Avatar
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    Thanks Brian

  8. #7
    Distinguished Member racer88's Avatar
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    What does the proposed law stipulate?

    And... how many here would comply?
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  9. #8
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    This has been on my mind and I wanted to look into how close they are for a while now. Thank you very much for starting this thread, I will definitely keep an eye on it.

  10. #9
    Distinguished Member gandrfab's Avatar
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    We need to fight back and stop accepting.
    Push for full auto ownership, let the gun grabbers settle for where we are now.

  11. #10
    Senior Member MisterEd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by racer88 View Post
    What does the proposed law stipulate?

    And... how many here would comply?
    Here's what it stipulates: https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/...df/70490-3.pdf

    As to how many would comply.... Dang these tippy fishing boats.
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